Tax authorities have overestimated how much they will raise in an amnesty on undeclared offshore financial interests that closes on Friday amid widespread public scepticism, analysts believe.
The New York Times reports that Revenue and Customs (HMRC) expects to raise up to 500 million pounds over four years from tax paid on previously undeclared offshore assets as a result of the latest amnesty for which it is accepting online disclosures until March 12.
But analysts from the wealth management, accountancy and legal industries doubt they will achieve anywhere close to this.
"To the best of my knowledge it has been incredibly poorly supported in terms of people coming forward," said Ronnie Ludwig, a partner in the private client team at accountants Saffery Champness.
Ludwig noted a reduced penalty of 10 per cent for people who come forward by the deadline, as opposed to potentially 100 per cent and possible criminal prosecution for those who do not and are caught, is not enough to convince many people.
"Other countries with amnesties... produced either no or low penalties," he said.
Others suggest the amount of money kept offshore for illegal purposes by British taxpayers is small relative to other European countries.
"We just don't have that culture here that has made tax evasion endemic elsewhere in Europe," said Chris Groves, a partner at law firm Withers.
Experts also highlight the fact that this latest exercise is the second amnesty in three years which may give tax evaders the idea that they will not be pursued or that there will be more amnesties in the future.
"My feeling is that although they say this is the final countdown, just like the song there will be a few encores demanded," said Sebastian Dovey, managing partner at specialist wealth management consultancy Scorpio Partnership.
The HMRC insists this will be the final opportunity to come clean, highlighting it has sought a tribunal order that means over 300 banks must submit details about accounts held offshore.
"We will begin to look through this information to identify individuals with offshore accounts as soon as the deadline passes," said a spokesman.
The UK ran a first amnesty, the Offshore Disclosure Facility (ODF) -- as opposed to the current New Disclosure Opportunity (NDO) -- between April and November 2007 which raised over 400 million pounds in extra revenue.
The British initiative comes amid an international clampdown on hiding money offshore initiated by bodies such as the G20.