NEW YORK: US stocks have piled up $1.5 trillion in market value this year, but hedge funds are bracing for tough times ahead. Based on buying and selling in 2017, managers have stopped loading up on bullish positioning. They've also become less reliant on U.S. stocks by selling economically sensitive bank shares and materials like copper, data compiled by Credit Suisse Group AG show. What are they buying? Gold, reports The Economic Times.
It's a shift from late December, when hedge fund exposure to US stocks, particularly financials, reached near record levels. In part, the move is as simple as prudent management, with funds taking profit after the longest rally in banking shares since 2013, said Benjamin Dunn, president of Alpha Theory LLC, which works with hedge funds overseeing about $6 billion. At the same time, the shift reflects lingering questions about the pace of policy changes and economic improvements, he said. “The conversation I have with a lot of funds is, `My crystal ball is really cloudy right now,“ Dunn said. “There's a lot of wait and see because the soft data is good but hard data hasn't picked up.“
Record US equity averages and improving business and consumer sentiment are countered by mixed economic data. Many analysts lowered estimates of first-quarter growth after consumer spending, the economy's primary fuel, increased less than forecast in January . At the same time, the Federal Reserve is poised to raise interest rates as soon as this month.
The gap between two-year and 30year interest rates, known as a yield curve, hovers near its lowest level in four months, data from Bloomberg show, suggesting limited potential for growth and inflation.
Though growth could pick up down the road, valuations may have stretched too far for comfort, said Mark Connors, Credit Suisse's global head of risk advisory in New York. Taking a more defensive stance protects fund managers whose lack of bearish bets would leave them vulnerable to any sudden selloffs. “Caution, hesitation on valuations, whatever you want to call it, now they're digesting information while the yield curve is flattening, not steepening,“ said Connors by phone.
Credit Suisse based its estimates on data from its prime brokerage accounts, which offer trading and other cash management services to hedge funds.
To be sure, hedge fund portfolios still contain more financial stocks than usual, according to Credit Suisse. But since December they've reduced their net exposure to banks by 15%, which is atypical considering the pending rate hike, Connors said. Before rate increases in 2015 and 2016 hedge funds added finance shares.
While profit-taking alone would be a logical conclusion to the 24% rally in the banking industry since the US presidential election in November, evidence indicates a shift toward defensive plays.
Funds increased their gold exposure two-fold while selling base metals like copper, which benefit from an uptick in growth, Credit Suisse data show. One large category of hedge funds which primarily trade futures, known as macro CTAs, are now net short US equities for the first time since before the election, the data show.