13/06/25

UK: Millionaire exodus did not occur, study reveals

As published on: taxjustice.net, Friday 13 June, 2025.

A millionaire exodus widely reported by news outlets around the world in 2024, and credited for the UK Labour government’s decision to weaken tax reforms, did not occur, the Tax Justice Network reveals.

The media reporting – consisting of over 10,900 news pieces across print, broadcast and online news in 2024 – was primarily based on a report published by Henley & Partners1, a firm that sells golden passports to the superrich and advises governments on setting up such schemes. The European Court of Justice recently ruled one such scheme, that of Malta, to be unlawful.2

The Tax Justice Network’s review – co-published with Patriotic Millionaires UK and Tax Justice UK – of the Henley report finds that the number of millionaires claimed by Henley & Partners to be leaving countries in “exodus” in 2024 represented near-0% of those countries’ millionaire populations.3 For example, the 9500 millionaires widely reported to be leaving the UK in 2024 represented 0.3% of the UK’s 3.06 million millionaires.4

Media reporting widely blamed the alleged millionaire exodus on tax policies in the same year that calls for a wealth tax on the superrich gained unprecedented momentum globally.5 The media reporting was equivalent to 30 news pieces a day on the non-existent millionaire exodus across 2024.

Reviewing the full period from 2013 to 2024 for which the Henley report presents estimates on millionaire migration, the Tax Justice Network finds that millionaire migration rates consistently stood at near-0% for every year.6 Academic studies consistently show that the tax responses of the wealthy involves minimal levels of migration.7

Henley’s estimates, when put into perspective, reveal a picture that is at complete odds with the report’s narrative and media coverage: millionaires are highly immobile, and nearly 100% of millionaires have not relocated to a new country since 2013, if Henley’s estimates are to be taken at face value.

Henley & Partners was accused in a 2018 UK Parliamentary inquiry of meddling in the elections of Caribbean nations in return for the exclusive rights to sell golden passports.8 Henley & Partners told The Guardian it “fundamentally rejects any allegation of wrongdoing”.9 A recent Financial Times article identified an EU-sanctioned Russian businessman with links to the Ukraine invasion who could more easily circumvent travel restrictions due to a Maltese golden passport Henley helped him acquire in the past.10 A spokesperson for Henley & Partners told the Financial Times that while she “could not comment on individual cases because of missing information and data protection… an individual ‘may pass all the stringent due diligence tests imposed, but still go on to engage in criminal activity.’”11

Golden passports are now illegal in the EU following a successful court challenge brought by the European Commission against Malta’s scheme, on which Henley & Partners had advised. The Commission said such schemes pose serious risks for money laundering, tax evasion and corruption.12 Henley & Partners told media in response that it was “disappointed” but that the decision “will only increase the demand for specialized advisors”.13

Findings behind Labour climbdown riddled with problems

The UK Labour government’s decision in January 2025 to weaken non-dom tax reform was widely reported to be a result of concerns about the Henley report’s findings.14

The Tax Justice Network’s review of the Henley report flags several issues with the report’s methodology as well as contradictions in Henley & Partner’s reporting, and particularly in its claims on the UK exodus.

Strikingly, the report’s methodology15 states that its estimates are primarily a measure of where millionaires say they work on social media and not of where they live or reside, meaning the report does not track actual, physical migration – contrary to the presenting of the estimates in the press.

Moreover, the report uses a far narrower definition of ‘millionaires’ that does not include all dollar millionaires like the standard definition (people with net worth of 1 million dollars or more), but rather only individuals with liquid assets worth 1 million dollars or more, who are thus richer and more mobile on average than a standardly defined millionaire.16 In the case of the UK, the ‘millionaires’ identified by the report represent just a fifth (20%) of the UK millionaire population.17 Even then, the report is based on a small sample from within these narrowly defined millionaires and the sample is skewed towards centi-millionaires and billionaires, who are also likely to be the most easily mobile.18

Just as striking, the use of the term “exodus” has been inconsistent in the analysis. In 2021, Henley described 2000 millionaires leaving the UK as “insignificant” but in 2023 described 1600 millionaires leaving the UK an “exodus”. In 2023, the 6500 millionaires claimed to be leaving India were described as “not particularly concerning” but redescribed in 2024 as a “wealth exodus”.19

The Tax Justice Network wrote to Henley & Partners and New World Wealth (who prepared the Henley report’s estimates) with questions for each ahead of the publication of its review. The response received said20:

“It seems this entire debate is over that one word. The dictionary definition is just ‘mass migration’, and HMRC’s own data shows that the number of non-doms in the UK is decreasing year on year – which seems to be a mass migration. If you are looking to the biblical definition, then to use the term ‘exodus’ would of course mean that all non-doms are leaving, but I don’t think many people take biblical interpretations quite so literally?”

Furthermore, Henley & Partners labelled the UK’s alleged exodus a “Brexodus” in 2023, claiming that the exodus was largely an impact of Brexit.21 In October 2024, Henley relabelled the exodus a “Wexit” in a press release framing the UK exodus as a reaction to tax hikes that might be announced in the UK Labour government’s upcoming budget statement.22

Henley & Partners’ specified in October 2024 that the “Wexit” is a “wealth exodus” that includes centi-millionaires and billionaires, and the report’s author emphasised that “[t]he large number of centi-millionaires leaving the UK is particularly concerning”.23 These claims appear inconsistent with Henley’s forecast made the month prior in September 2024 that the UK centi-millionaire population is growing and will continue to grow from 2024 to 2040.24

The press release highlighted that the UK Labour government’s budget statement as a main reason for this alleged “wealth exodus”:

“The UK’s high tax rates and concerns about additional tax hikes that could be announced at the end of the month in the Labour Party’s first budget in 14 years, are highlighted as being among the main reasons for the wealth exodus.”25

A response sent by Henley & Partners to the Tax Justice Network said:

“We have never claimed that Labour tax policies were the sole or root cause. If papers such as the Telegraph, Times, Mail, decide to add their own layer on to that, and deliberately exclude from their story our standard reminder to them that these were the Conservatives’ tax changes, then I think your argument is with them not with us.”

Moreover, it is unclear whether the forecast of centi-millionaires and billionaires leaving the UK that Henley reported in October 2024 was different from the forecast it initially made in June 2024 when the Labour party was not in power.

Media adds fuel to the fictional fire

The Tax Justice Network’s analysis of media coverage of the Henley report finds that coverage often went far beyond any claims made in the report itself, contributing to an entirely unfounded narrative about the role of tax and government policies in causing a millionaire exodus which itself did not occur.

Tax was mentioned in half of global media coverage of the exodus and far more often than any other exodus drivers discussed in the Henley report.

The UK Labour party, which was not in power when the report was published in June 2024, was mentioned more than twice as much as the UK Conservative party in global media coverage, and nearly four times as much as Brexit in UK media coverage.

Note: Percentages show the number of mentions as a share of all global media coverage

The picture is more skewed in UK media coverage, where tax was mentioned in 71% of coverage and Labour mentioned in 43% of coverage.26

Seven high-profile millionaires leaving the UK were mentioned nearly three times more often in global media coverage than pro-tax millionaire campaign groups representing hundreds of millionaires.27

In contrast to the media narrative, 81% of UK millionaires agree with the statement that it is patriotic to pay a fair share of tax, according to a poll published on 5 June 2025 by Patriotic Millionaires UK. 80% of UK millionaires said they would support a wealth tax of 2% on wealth over £10 million.28

The Tax Justice Network’s review of the Henley report raised a number of other questions, including the statistical credibility of drawing any conclusions from a self-admittedly unrepresentative sample; and the degree of extrapolation necessary to make any findings about smaller groups such as billionaires.

On the report’s sample, the response sent by Henley & Partners said:

“Statistically, if it is consistent year by year, then laws of statistical sampling mean that it can be used to draw a conclusion.”

The report is published by Henley & Partners but prepared by New World Wealth29, which describes itself as a “wealth intelligence firm” on its website. New World Wealth appears to have only one staff member and has not made the data behind its calculations public.

New World Wealth has been publishing estimates on millionaire migrations for at least a decade, and first began to publish its estimates with Henley & Partners in 2022, which was the first time the estimates on millionaire migrations underway were described as an “exodus”.

More specific questions about the sample sent to New World Wealth, including a question asking how many real persons in the sample were observed to have “migrated” in 2024, were not responded to.

Fariya Mohiuddin, Deputy Director: External Affairs at Tax Justice UK said:

“Taxing the super-rich to revitalise key services like the NHS and education, that we all rely on, is more urgent than ever. Taxing the wealth of the richest is simply not going to cause a mass exodus. This is scaremongering and statistical obfuscation by companies that represent the interests of billionaires and multi-millionaires. In fact, when the numbers are crunched properly, rather than using dodgy stats and figures, tax is an inconsequential factor in the decision-making of the vanishingly small percentage of millionaires that do decide to move. In fact, many wealthy people want to pay more tax. They know that when public services are well-funded, people are healthy, and the country works better, they will benefit – alongside everyone else.”

Member of Patriotic Millionaires UK and legal consultant, Stephen Kinsella said:

“As this excellent report from the Tax Justice Network shows, millionaires like me aren’t going anywhere. We want to build a better Britain so we’re proud to pay and here to stay. When nearly three quarters of UK millionaires think taxes should be raised on the richest to reduce the strain on everyone else, and 81% think it’s patriotic to pay their fair share in tax, what on earth is stopping our Government from doing their duty and taxing extreme wealth?”

Alex Cobham, chief executive at the Tax Justice Network, said:

“The majority of people want taxes on the superrich, the majority of millionaires are saying tax us, and practically all credible studies say you should do it. But what the media reported, and the government listened to, was a fictional millionaire ‘exodus’ based on questionable data published by a firm that helps the superrich buy their way out of the rules that apply to everybody else. Tax is our most powerful tool for creating more equal societies, but scare stories like these are used to talk down to people and to block positive change.”

“This is a wakeup call for media professionals and governments alike. Do your homework when it comes to tax. Treat the Henley report and any such claims about fleeing millionaires with extreme caution, and make sure your stories and your policy decisions are based on robust evidence.”

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UK Millionaire Exodus Tax Justice Network